You know, I had been blogging a lot up about health care reform until recently. I chose to lay off for a while as the congress debated the next version of a reform bill. I used the opportunity to do a little research into population trends, health care life expectancy and the sustainability of the human race. Taking the lead from an essay posted on this site I want to share with you what I’ve gathered and what I think this information means in regard to where we should be going in health care reform.
In the before mentioned essay, the writer likens the world to his natural fish tank that is in such balance that all he need do for maintenance is replenish evaporated water. He suggests that if his fish suddenly became smart enough to cure their diseases and stop eating their young they would over populate the tank and kill themselves off by exhausting resources and accumulating wastes. The scary thing is that many scientists have claimed this is the likely fate for the human race in time. Worse yet, some are saying we may be within 2-3 generations of this happening. That’s within the life span of our grand children or great grand children. It could happen in the same amount of time the U.S. has been a country. Worried yet?
We hear a lot about birth control as a method of population control, and we’ll address this at some point, but did you know that recently the average life span for those in the US has been adjusted up to just under 80 years of age. Now that means you and I have been given a couple more years, but what about those born today, 10/7/2009? It is thought they may live on average to 100 (104 I believe the number was). WOW, where are we going to put all the old people, huh?
Today we have nearly 7 billion people on this rock. If you look strictly for a place to rest your rump, that’s not too bad. In the US we have about 31 people for every square kilometer of land; Japan’s population density is over 10 times that. If you apply Japan’s example to the rest of the world we easily have enough room for 50 BILLION people. Like the fish tank example however, room is not the issue. The issue is sustainability; that is, how many people can the earth support without suffering unsustainable loss in resources or toxic accumulation of waste?
That question has been asked for years. Thomas Malthus proposed a theory that had us all dead by the year 2000 but he failed to take into consideration advances in agricultural and food preservation technology. Today scientists are warning there are limits to technology and our ability to financially sustain our less than modest life style.
The UN has been watching this pretty closely for years via a group of international scientists, many of which predict world population will reach 9 million by mid century. Problem is, for the world to be sustainable with this population, our economics and resource utilization would need to be scaled back to that of ETHIOPIA today. Apparently we have over 3 times the population right now that the earth is capable of sustaining at our current rate of resource utilization and waste production.
So, does this mean the world comes to an end in 50-75 years? No. I am sure we can squeeze more out of science in regard to food and waste management. We certainly have room on the planet. Things will change however; we’ll be out of oil and other natural resources will be depleting and our economies will necessarily have changed dramatically. Many learned individuals say we can keep pushing the envelope to 2150, maybe 2250 but what then. Does God wake up and find all his fishies floating at the top of the tank?
It bothers me that with this legitimate concern supported by scientists and economists alike we continue our efforts to defeat death and live forever instead of considering how this attitude might be contributing to unnecessary tribulation for the human race and possibly its demise in the future. One of the scariest things I realized is that it is not some nameless and faceless people that will suffer from our actions today. It is people we will likely see and touch in our own lifetime, our grand children and great grandchildren.
So where am I going with this series of blogs? I want to make a case for redirecting our cultural attitude to accepting individual death as a design requirement for the human race’s survival, not a design flaw. I think its time to take another step from the cave and refocus our attention on improving quality of life for all instead of wasting resources on longevity. I’m over 50 and I will happily pass to that undiscovered country with the knowledge that my future is secure in the future of my children and my children’s children.
Next time I’m gonna concentrate on population growth in the past, predictions for the future and what is the “natural” life expectancy for humans. At some point we’ll bring the conversation back to implications for America and health care reform: our financial system is far less sustainable in the short term with this live-forever mentality than the race itself is–and we’ll be feeling that pain ourselves.
